Tag Archives: black friday

Weekly Decline in US Unemployment Claims

Posted on December 10, 2011 by admin

The United States Department of Labor just released promising information regarding unemployment claims for the previous week.  The announcement included information regarding the seasonally adjusted initial claims and stated that last week’s number of unemployment claims equaled 381,000, which equals a 23,000 decrease in claims from the previous week.  The average 4-week claim number also decreased by 3,000 from last week’s 4-week average.  These numbers correspond with a continuing trend during the last month of a decrease in unemployment claims. The decrease in unemployment claims is an important indicator of economic health and growth.  The number that economists look for is 400,000. CNBC calls this number “psychologically important.”  According to MarketWatch , claims below this number indicate faster economic growth and the creation of more jobs.  CNBC speculates that applications for unemployment need to be under 375,000 consistently to decrease the unemployment rate.   MarketWatch notes that weekly claims averaged around 370,000 to 380,000 when the economy began to generate more jobs after the last recession in the fall of 2003.  If weekly claims continue to fall, this could be an indication that more jobs will be created and the unemployment rate will decrease. However, the decrease of 23,000 is only the measurement for one week.  Weekly figures can be volatile and in themselves cannot be conclusive measurements of the health of the economy.  Market Watch suggests that economists look more closely at the monthly average, which has dropped by over 3,000 claims.  This number is more suggestive of economic health, a faster rate of job creation, and economic progress. This release comes after a few other indicators of economic growth.  Reports have been released regarding increased sales in retail businesses throughout the holiday season, a leveling of employee earnings, and an increase in consumer credit use.  Taken together, these factors point toward a welcome growth in the economy.  The overwhelming number of sales across the nation, particularly on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, may be a positive indication of what is to come.  While it is difficult to say what type of money consumers were spending, whether it was funds they had in savings or unemployment compensation, it is safe to assume that consumers are more comfortable with their financial situation. When the economy is healthier, consumer confidence increases, investors are more likely to invest, and more jobs are created. Continue reading →

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Revolving Credit: Americans Borrow More in October

Posted on December 9, 2011 by admin

A recent release by the US Federal Reserve indicated an increased use of consumer credit.  According to the release, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.75 percent in October, revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent and non-revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.25 percent. These changes could be an important indication as to the state of the economy. Revolving credit is the amount that consumers use for credit cards and similar financial tools.  According to the Financial Times , an increase of use in revolving credit can be a positive indication of consumer confidence.  After a series of several months that demonstrated a decrease in consumer credit, this recent increase could indicate that consumers are more willing and more comfortable accruing debt.  In particular, Black Friday and Cyber Monday saw record high sales this year as compared to previous years.  While consumers may or may not have accrued specific debts by purchasing holiday gifts, it is still a forecast of public spending and consumer credit. On the other hand, an increase in credit use can also be a negative indication of the economy if consumers are accumulating too much debt to offset declining incomes. Considering the increase profits of retailers this holiday season, the increase in revolving credit could also be a reflection of consumers charging holiday purchases, in which case a future decline in credit use will be likely within the next two months. Non-revolving credit refers to credit for long-term investments, such as vehicle loans or student loans. According to Bloomberg , the economy is stimulated during times when consumers borrow to buy cars and other large purchases.  Bloomberg also holds that the increased use of credit can also be an indication of future spending patterns.  Non-revolving credit increases are more indicative of spending patterns since they are not as volatile as credit card use. Continue reading →

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US Average Hourly Earnings Decline in November

Posted on December 7, 2011 by admin

The average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payroll employees have decreased, according to a December 2, 2011 press release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The recent $23.20 average hourly earnings has decreased to $23.18.  The decrease of 2 cents per hour, or 0.1 percent of the rate, has come after a continuous gain of 1.8 percent over the last 12 months. The recent decrease in hourly wages after a steady increase over the last 12 months could indicate that growth in the economy has tapered off.  This slowing could result in a more stable and predictable economy.  If the months continue to show material fluctuation in hourly wages economists and consumers the economy may grow more confident about the economy. If consumers are less concerned regarding their own employment and ability to retain their own job, they may increase consumer and borrowing.  These changes, in turn, could motivate banks and private sector investment companies to lend and invest funds.  In fact, consumers spent record highs in terms of spending on Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year, a sign that more people are feeling comfortable with their economic position. However, if the next few months indicate a steady decrease in the average hourly earnings, consumers will likely be more concerned about their employment prospects and will feel less confident in spending. This decrease in confidence will likely lead to a decrease in overall economic activity. Investors and lending institutions would be less likely to loan or invest funds in an uncertain market.  Interest rates would likely rise to compensate for an increased risk of investment. Since the average hourly wages have decreased slightly, economists will continue to monitor this statistic to determine whether the economy has stabilized or if a decline in the economy is more likely to occur.  They will also look at other data to gauge the health of the economy, including the unemployment rate, inflation, value of the American dollar, and the consumer confidence level as determined by the amount of consumption that takes place over the upcoming holiday season. Continue reading →

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Unemployment Drops to 8.6% but Economists Warn of Future Struggles

Posted on December 6, 2011 by admin

Washington, DC–The Bureau of Labor and Statistics announced Friday , the unemployment rate fell in November 2011 to 8.6 percent from 9 percent. The BLS recorded that 72,000 non-farm payroll or private jobs were added, slightly below the forecasted 125,000 economists predicted, according to the Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch . Private Sector and Government Jobs September’s employment numbers were revised up 33 percent from 158,000 to 210,000.  Additionally, October’s job gains were recalculated to have added 25 percent more than originally reported, bringing the total up from 80,000 to 100,00.  All totaled, the private sector added 140,000 jobs in the month of November, 50,000 of which were in the retail sector. Last month, according to the same report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, government jobs shrunk by 20,000. Unemployment Claims Unemployment numbers have been up from previous weeks.  402,000 initial unemployment insurance claims were made in the week ending November 26th, reports CNN Money . Continuing claims, or those filing for a second week of unemployment benefits, likewise rose for the second consecutive week in a row. Those claims rose from 3,705,000 in the week ending November 12th to 3,740,00 or 35,000 for the week ending November 19th. The U6 or broader unemployment figure also dropped from 16.2 percent in October to 15.6 percent in November, according to the Huffington Post . The U6 encompasses part-time workers still seeking full-time employment and jobless individuals having given up looking for work. The U3, or most widely reported number of 8.6 percent does not count the 315,000 people who have given up trying to find employment, reports the Los Angeles Times . Only 64 percent of the labor force is employed in the latest round of numbers, according to Bloomberg News . What it Means The numbers show a mixed bag of economic news. While consumers set records in terms of spending money on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, unemployment still remains high. Some people are attempting to spend money they simply do not have due to their own or their spouse’s unemployment. Nevertheless, it has not deterred people from purchasing items for the holidays in the past few weeks. Some of those currently included in the unemployment rate won’t be, as they reach the 99 week unemployment assistance cutoff. Continue reading →

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Strategies for Black Friday Shopping

Posted on November 21, 2011 by admin

This year’s best Black Friday strategy maybe to start shopping on Thursday!  While Kmart has been opening on Thursday for a couple of decades, Toys R Us and Wal-Mart broke the mold last year by opening on Thursday night/Friday morning at midnight.  In an ongoing battle for the competitive edge, several other national retail chains are now following suit and opening on Thanksgiving Day. This year Wal-Mart will begin offering Black Friday at 10 p.m. Thanksgiving Day.  Not to be outdone, Toys R Us will open at 9 p.m. Sears and close to 1,000 Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Gap Outlet and Banana Republic Factory locations across the country will open on Thanksgiving Day.  Check your local listings for opening hours for stores near you. Best Buy, Kohl’s, Macy’s and Target all will open for the first time at 12:00 a.m. Thursday night/Friday morning. If you plan to be among the millions who shop on the biggest retail day of the year, here are some tips to keep you from having buyer’s remorse the following day. Lay Out Your Strategy Now Plan your strategy by checking out the Black Friday deals retailers have already started unveiling on line.  While you are there, also check out Cyber Monday deals to determine when the item you are interested in is most likely to be on sale.  Now is also the time to Google coupon or promotional codes to maximize your savings. Wal-Mart’s Black Friday Specials Target Black Friday Specials J.C. Penney Black Friday Specials Best Buy Black Friday Specials Plan your Shopping List/Budget While perusing the different specials on line, make out a list of potential purchases and then compare it with your budget.  It is better to rethink your purchases now and adjust before you have spent the grocery money/ maxed out your credit card. Plan Where You are Going When Some shoppers will get there the night/day before.  Some of the best deals will launch at midnight, others at 4 a.m. and some will be opening on Thanksgiving Day.  To get the best deals, you will have to be at the front of the line.  Bring a non-shopping teammate(s) that can stand in line for you while you are shopping elsewhere.  Team up with friends to plan a strategy for covering more bases. Make Decisions Ahead of Time Do your research in advance and know which blender/digital camera, etc., you are going to buy.  Harried store clerks will not be in the mood to answer your questions or be patient with your indecision. Keep Your Blinders On and Your Wallet Hidden Remember your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to keep from going over your budget and to stick with the plan regardless of the eye-catching candy retailers have put out to trap you.  Keep your wallet hidden and keep track of your receipts since one-third of all gifts are returned. Know Your Limit and Do Not Exceed It. This all depends on having a plan and sticking to it. Good Luck! Continue reading →

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